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ぎゃんぶらぁ事故中心派

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Japanese investor BNF’s old statement.

   

Fragment of BNF’s statement.

I always hold on to 10 to 30 stocks that are large in scale and have liquidity. I look at general flow of Nikkei Futures and search for various stocks. When the market is bad, I aim for rebound.

Trading on the Internet all day is very nerve wrecking and mentally hard as well. This is why I probably won’t stop hereafter but thinking about decreasing the amount of investments.

I only bought J:Com because the stock price was cheap. I’ve had time when I profited 0.25 billion yen in one day and on the other hand, had a day when I lost 0.16 billion yen.

No matter how much money I make or lose, it’s very mentally hard. Trading is harsh. Once you go into this world, whatever you’re doing, you think about stocks. You want to stop but you can’t.

I don’t know. I was in a good era. I had just started Internet trading and the timing I started was all very good.

I never do funds that may move someone else’s capital. I’d rather forget about stocks. But while I’m making profit, I can’t stop. I probably can’t stop until I lose a ton.

What is important is that you cut your loss at an early stage. For me, if it goes below my expectation, I don’t wait for it go up and I settle on my loss quickly.

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Conjecture about BNF’s trade.

648 :anonymous:2009/03/28(土) 00:06:28 ID:4X7MFo/T

I mostly understood BNF’s methods.
I agree with watching the movement of foreign bonds.
I especially watch movement of American stocks from the night before.
If American stocks move up, Japanese stocks rise and if American ones go down Japanese go down as well.
Rather than looking at the movement of Nikkei average, it’s better to look carefully at the NY Dow average.

If I see American stocks move and think it’s going to go up, I’ll hold onto Japanese stocks that are easy to move along with market average and that are low in price.
If things go as expected the next day, I’ll sell and if it seems like it may go up a bit more, I’ll hold on to it.
If it goes against my expectation and drops, I’ll but my losses.

I think everyone that continuously makes money is using similar methods.
I use this method as well.
At least you can’t really win just by looking at Japanese stocks.

650 :anonymous:2009/03/28(土) 00:32:37 ID:5dfaklcR
>>649

I check for reversing points in American stocks.
For example, on the night before, American stocks drip down and closes at repulsion point.
American stocks affect Japanese stocks from the day before so they go down as well.
But because American stocks bounced back on closing, you anticipate American stocks tonight will be the same.

So if Japanese stocks go down, you can buy relieved and hold on to them.

BNF’s old posting

532 名前:B・N・F ◆mKx8G6UMYQ [] 投稿日:04/02/04(水) 23:47 ID:74GYaq15
I saw this show called Money Revolution and the first story was about an investor named Victor Niederhoffer.
But he was a genius. Like a real genius.
I made 1.8 million yen into 100 million in over a year and half. I was a big head then.
I thought that my way had a way better performance than Victor.
But I realized losing 15 million out of 50,000 and losing 5 million out of 150 million was completely different, mentally. This is when I realized that he is a genius.
How hard it is mentally to manage such a big capital. And the difference of taking your profits and cutting losses.
And the slowness of their big bodies building on top of the norm they have to complete every year…
Increasing your own capital and at the same time trading tens and thousands of billions.
And keeping up the good performance, and how mentally tough and have incredible trading technique and thinking fast.
I know I can never do it.
The way you figure our if the person is a genius or not is by increasing his capital to at least 1 billion yen.
And not even feeling crushed by it and can trade it like it’s 10 million yen. Well I don’t think that kind of person exists.
But there may be one in 50,000 people. It’s a genius so that seems about right.
Even if you see an amazing shogi player, you don’t just ignore Yoshiharu Habu or Taku Morishita  and call the guy in front of you a genius.
You often see the word genius on stock chats but any investment amount less than 100 million,
And no matter how much of a great performance it is, I don’t think that counts as being a genius.
I also think that you shouldn’t call someone genius just because he or she is better than the average. For a genius of stocks, not only do you increase your capital.
But there will be a lot of people that want you to trade, which will increase your amounts, become too big and may lead you to a failure.

179 名前:B・N・F ◆mKx8G6UMYQ [] 投稿日:04/04/17(土) 21:58 ID:/fJWqwqc
>>173

Not everyone in the world of stocks is thinking short-term.
The method that fits a person depends on their personalities.
For instance, I don’t think anyone with long-term stance would look at mine and change their methods, and it is difficult for ordinary business person’s to invest like me.

I don’t even know if my method now is even good.
It may only work because announcing stock splits and ignoring market capital, prices go way up.
But if you do this in a downward market, you may make a bit of money but risks may be too high.
I feel like any methods will yield a profit with this situation.

A long time ago, I watched TV program ‘Money Revolution’.
They were creating various stances and investors that varied – long-term, short-term, dovish, and hawkish. There were more than 10 investors with different personalities and stances.

The people that bought varied but when the market dipped down or soared, that was when they all either bought or sold.

What I mean is, a person that is bullish in short-term is probably one out of those ten something investors and when market conditions change, either long-term or short-term person may switch over to one another.

So you can’t really say which is the right way. Being bullish in short-term only works in strong market and you can’t really tell the superior method in this market condition.

But, looking at movements of American stocks, there are so many hedge funds that are way superior than me or individual investors that have such a long experience than me that are all so very good. There are many books that are written by them, but looking at countries with those kinds of books, it seems like Japanese market is not that different. From this, I think that it will not move the market that much even if people use my method and if people use methods that do not fit their personalities, it only is a loss for them. There has been many researches done for a long time on the market in general and not just stocks and the reality of the stock market all over the world, is that it keeps on going up and down. I don’t think it will by any effect to the market but I’m not supposed to write my methods so I won’t, sorry.

258 名前:B・N・F ◆mKx8G6UMYQ [] 投稿日:04/02/02(月) 15:07 ID:7n8Pko9G
I think you should know about trading if possible.
The more you know, the more advantageous it is for you.
There are people that lose money because they don’t know to read the fundamentals, even though they know how to read charts. Even if it’s short-term, what I take care of are long-term big investments.
Short-term investors only care about if they were able to ride the wave or not.
But if you were long-term investors, what would you buy it for?
Is it cheap? Will it grow? Is it advantageous when law changes?
In these cases, what is your target price range?
At what point do you read mid-term trends longs and which price range do you call it for loss cut?
Is it the 25th day average? Or
What does the day trader prefer at what point of time?
Is short-term drop, started by pros selling off? Or is it the day traders?
Or could it be an event driven, such as financial reports coming out the next day?
Mothers index is strong but is it because there are big trades individually?
Are Japanese stocks being looked at again by overseas since the Nikkei average volume increased?
This kind of recognition amongst every generation is what will create a swing, whether it is from day trading and a big performance.
This is why it’s sad if you think it is not related to you because your expertises are on something else.

*original link http://plaza.rakuten.co.jp/shiroutokabu/23006/

 - English

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